4:00 P.M. UPDATE FOR TROPICAL STORM ALEX

CLICK HERE FOR 4PM FORECAST TRACK OF ALEX

Once the mid to upper-level trough over the northern Gulf of Mexico moves away from Alex…the environment should become more favorable for intensification as the shear decreases and Alex moves toward a warm eddy in the southwestern Gulf. The official NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous package…and is close to a
blend of the SHIPS and lgem models…which are the strongest of the intensity models. Also…Alex could strengthen a little more before landfall beyond what is shown in the 48-hour forecast…but none of the guidance shows Alex reaching major hurricane intensity at this time.

Alex has moved little over the past few hours…but the best long-term initial motion estimate is toward the north-northwest… 330 degrees…at 4 knots. After the upper-level trough over the northern Gulf moves east…the global models are now in generally good agreement in building a ridge to the north of Alex. This should result in a turn toward the northwest and then toward the west-northwest over the next couple of days…with an increase in forward speed. Compared to yesterday…the track guidance is in
better agreement on this scenario and has generally trended southward and faster with the forward speed. Accordingly…the official forecast has been adjusted to the left and shows an increase in forward speed…but now lies to the right of most of the dynamical models.

A Hurricane Warning may be required for a portion of the Hurricane Watch area tonight.

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