90% chance of tropical activity in the Gulf this week

HOUSTON, Texas (KTRK) — The odds are still increasing that a tropical depression or storm will form in the Gulf of Mexico next week. A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over or near Central America next week, and the National Hurricane Center now gives it an 90 percent chance of becoming a tropical cyclone.

This low will tug a large area of deep tropical moisture into the Gulf early this week, and our best computer models continue to suggest low pressure may spin up in this moisture over the warm Gulf waters.

There’s no way to determine impacts here until something develops, if anything develops at all, but if we were to get any direct impacts, it would likely be in the Wednesday to Friday time frame this week. We’ll keep an eye on it in case anything does materialize after Father’s Day.

A tropical wave in the central Atlantic also has an increasing chance of developing into a tropical cyclone. It is extremely rare for anything to develop east of the Caribbean in June. Right now, the National Hurricane Center gives it an 50 percent chance of developing into a tropical depression or storm over the next five days.

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