WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The government of Cuba has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the Cuban province of Pinar del Rio.
A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the Dry Tortugas in the Florida Keys.
A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the west coast of the Florida peninsula from Boca Grande to Anclote River. The Tropical Storm Watch along the coast of the Florida panhandle has been extended eastward to the Aucilla River.
The Storm Surge Watch has been extended eastward to Crystal River, Florida.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for… * Crystal River to the Mouth of the Mississippi River
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for… * Cuban province of Pinar del Rio * Dry Tortugas
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for… * Boca Grande to Anclote River * Aucilla River to Grand Isle * Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible in the United States portion of that watch area within 48 hours.
For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Alberto was located near latitude 21.6 North, longitude 84.9 West. The storm is moving toward the north near 10 mph (17 km/h). A northward or north-northeastward motion is expected today, followed by a turn to the northwest on Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Alberto is expected to move near the western tip of Cuba this afternoon, track across the eastern Gulf of Mexico tonight through Monday, and approach the northern Gulf Coast in the watch area Monday night.
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast until the system reaches the northern Gulf Coast by Monday night.
Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) mainly to the east of the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
RAINFALL: Alberto is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 10 to 15 inches with isolated totals of 25 inches across western Cuba. These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Rainfall accumulations of 3 to 7 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches are possible across the Florida Keys and southern and southwest Florida. Heavy rains will begin to affect the central Gulf Coast region into the southeastern United States on Sunday and continue into the middle of next week as Alberto moves northward after landfall. Rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches with maximum amounts of 15 inches are possible along the track of Alberto from eastern Louisiana, across much of Mississippi, Alabama, western Tennessee and the western Florida panhandle. Rainfall totals of 3 to 5 inches with maximum totals of 8 inches possible from the southern Appalachians into the coastal southeast.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the warning area in Cuba through this evening. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Dry Tortugas later today and tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area along the Florida west coast on Sunday, and along the northern Gulf Coast by Sunday night or early Monday.
STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…
Crystal River to the Mouth of the Mississippi River…2 to 4 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast. Surge- related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.
TORNADOES: A tornado or two may occur over the Florida Keys and parts of southwestern Florida late this afternoon through tonight.
SURF: Swells generated by Alberto are affecting portions of the coast of eastern Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Hazardous surf conditions are likely to develop along much of the central and eastern U.S. Gulf Coast through the weekend. For more information, consult products from your local weather office.
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.
$$ Forecaster Brown