BONNIE MOVING TOWARD THE GULF

 
The new track actually pulls Bonnie away from the Texas Coast and more 
into Louisiana sometime Sunday afternoon.
an Air Force reconnaissance plane has been investigating the
depression and found a broad circulation with peak winds around 30
knots and a minimum pressure near 1006 mb. The cloud pattern has not
become any better organzied than earlier today with the center now
on the southern portion of the convection due to some shear. The
outflow is becoming established in all quadrants except to the
southwest where the upper low is located. Initial intensity is kept
at 30 knots but only a small relaxation of the shear...as
expected...will result in some intensification. None of the
guidance models show large increases in strength...perhaps due to
the proximity of the depression to the strong upper low. The
official forecast is generous compared to the dynamical guidance
but is close to the SHIPS and lgem models. 

 
The overall circulation has moved a little to the northwest around
an upper-low over Florida during the past few hours. The best
estimate of the initial motion is 310 degrees at 12 knots.
However...as the upper low moves to the west as indicated by most
of the global models...the depression will become embedded within a
deep easterly flow and should begin to move more to the
west-northwest with an increase in forward speed. The track
guidance is in remarkably good agreement...bringing the cyclone
across the Florida Straits and across the Gulf of Mexico...and
so does the official forecast.
 
072210_8pm bonnie 

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