Friday, March 29, 2024
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GET READY FOR ROUGH WEATHER AGAIN

Summary

Strong to possibly severe storms will be possible across parts of Southeast Texas on Wednesday through Friday. The severe weather threat appears to be slightly higher on Wednesday and Friday, but all three days should be continued to be monitored for potential impacts. While we do have lingering rain chances over the weekend, severe weather is not expected.

Wednesday Outlook

We could see two different rounds of activity on Wednesday; the first with scattered thunderstorms developing across the area with daytime heating and the second Wednesday night into early Thursday morning as thunderstorm activity well northwest of the region congeals into a larger complex and moves east-southeastward towards the Piney Woods area. There’s still uncertainty on how far south and west into the region this system will move, with counties north of the Trinity River having the highest chances for impacts.

Thursday & Friday Outlook

Confidence is low in storms being able to develop on Thursday owing to a cap that may inhibit thunderstorm formation, but if storms are able to form conditions are in place for them to intensify to strong or even severe levels. Higher confidence exists in strong or severe thunderstorm development on Friday as a cold front and associated storm system approach the region from the west, with scattered storms able to develop along and ahead of this front.


Locations/Timing

For Wednesday, severe weather will be possible throughout the region during the afternoon and evening, with the threat shifting to along and north of a Caldwell to Huntsville to Devers line during the night.

Locations for Thursday and Friday will become better refined in subsequent forecasts, but as of today the greatest threat for severe weather on Thursday (if storms are able to develop) would be north of I-10. Friday’s threat shifts farther south to include the entire region, with the threat increasing from west to east during the day as the front approaches.


Hazards and Impacts

Any thunderstorm will be capable of lightning, large hail and damaging winds. An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out, but this threat appears to be somewhat lower than the hail/damaging wind threat. Stronger wind gusts may produce tree damage or localized power outages. Brief heavy rainfall will also be a concern, but storms are expected to move fairly quickly which will help limit flooding potential. 

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