August 10, 2022 9:08 pm

rotator
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rotator
Posted: 28.6.2022 12:15

Gulf disturbance up to a 30% chance of development


Our tropical disturbance off the Texas Gulf coast has a 30% chance of development, it’s track will determine our rainfall chances late week.
June 28
A surge of tropical moisture along the Texas Gulf Coast is now up to a 30% chance of development over the next two days. Regardless of its potential development, the track of this disturbance will have a significant impact on our rain chances for the remainder of the week. A more northerly track would bring significant rain to SE Texas (1-2 inches for Houston) through the week, while other models showing a more westerly track limit our rain to just a few tenths of an inch in the same timespan.

We also have Potential Storm 2 in the Caribbean, which is likely to become our next named storm (Bonnie) but will have no impact here in Texas. After grazing in northern Venezuela the storm will eventually be making landfall in Central America.

June 27
Potential Storm 2 has formed well east of the Windward Islands in the central Atlantic. Models continue to show that system impacting Central America and staying well clear of Texas. On its heels in the open Atlantic is another potential area of development, it’s far enough away and has a low enough chance of developing that it isn’t a high priority or concern for the time being.

The National Hurricane Center is also highlighting an area much closer to home for potential development. We’re keeping an eye along the Texas Gulf Coast for a low-pressure system to spin up, though the chance of it developing into a tropical system is low. Regardless, it will beef up our rain chances as we move through this upcoming week.

June 26
Two areas of potential development that we are keeping an eye on, the first is a disturbance in the Gulf which has a 20% chance of development. While that system has only a low chance of development, it will bring an influx of moisture to our area and increase rain chances through next week.
The second potential system is in the open Atlantic and now has a 70% chance of development. While this is likely to become “Bonnie” in the coming days, models have consistently kept the storm well away from SE Texas, bringing it instead into Central America. We’ll keep a watch on both systems as we move through next week.

June 25
As of this morning, the National Hurricane Center is now monitoring an area of low pressure expected to form off the Texas Gulf Coast in the early to middle of next week. The chance for development is low (20%), but it could bring some welcome rains next week.

Another area of potential development much farther away, this one in the Eastern Atlantic, is also being monitored by the NHC with a 60% chance of development over the next 5 days. We still have plenty of time to monitor that system for any potential impacts to the US.

June 24
We’re continuing to watch a tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic that now has a 60% chance of development over the next 5 days. There’s still plenty of time to watch this system, so we’ll keep our eyes on it as we move into early July, but there’s no immediate or imminent threat, and it’s unlikely to pose any risk to us in Texas. If this does become our next named storm of the season it would be “Bonnie”.

June 23
The National Hurricane Center is monitoring a tropical wave located over the eastern Atlantic for tropical development. Formation odds are low at 20 percent during the next 5 days. Conditions could become more favorable for gradual development by early next week as the disturbance moves westward at around 15 mph toward the Caribbean.
Tropical Storm Celia is forecast to become a hurricane in a couple of days as it stays off the southwest coast of Mexico. Swells will increase and could reach southern portions of the Baja California peninsula by Friday.

June 22

While tropical development is not expected over the next five days, long-range indications suggest we could see our first development from a tropical wave deep in the Atlantic in the last few days of June.
Tropical Storm Celia is forecast to become a hurricane in a couple of days as it stays off the southwest coast of Mexico. Swells will increase and could reach southern portions of the Baja California peninsula by Friday.