Confidence growing that Southeast Texas area will receive heavy rainfall Friday night. Flooding the main threat across the region. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible mainly south of the Interstate 10 corridor and over the Coastal waters.
Dry weather over the area coming to an end as moisture surges back into the area Friday. A vigorous upper-level storm system will move across the region Friday night bringing widespread rainfall starting Friday afternoon through the morning hours Saturday. Heavy to very heavy rainfall likely Friday night. Still too early to try to pinpoint the areas that will get the hardest hit but the ingredients are going to be in place. Looking at it from a historical perspective this kind of an event is in the 98th to 99th percentile or greater for this time of year.
Rainfall of 2 to 5 inches is very likely across nearly the entirety of Southeast Texas. A slow moving cold front could help to focus a large swath of greater rainfall across the area with some isolated amounts of 10 to 11 inches. Rainfall rates in excess of 2″ per hour likely.
Street flooding is likely and this widespread rainfall will likely lead to abundant runoff causing river and bayou flooding. Moderate river flooding possible. Note…going right past Level 1 straight to Level 2 Urban Flash Flood Messaging.