Increasing shower and thunderstorm coverage is expected today through Monday. Several rounds of storms are possible, and some of the storms could become strong or severe.
The Storm Prediction Center’s (SPC) Day 1 Convective Outlook (issued at 8 AM Sunday) has Southeast Texas in a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms today (see image below). The combination of daytime heating, increasing instability, and possible remnant storm boundaries pushing southward into our area could lead to strong to severe thunderstorm formation. It is possible the area could see additional development tonight and into Monday
The primary severe weather hazard will be strong damaging winds but there will be a threat for isolated tornadoes, especially near the Enhanced Risk area over Central Texas. Remnant storm boundaries could dissipate before reaching our area, and more than anticipated cloud cover could limit maximum daytime heating resulting in a lower severe threat.
Although widespread heavy rain is not forecast, moisture levels will be high and locally heavy rain will be possible. Some computer models do show localized rainfall totals for today and Monday approaching 2 to 4 inches, and some of this could fall in a very short period of time.
Based on forecast conditions, NWS Houston will be utilizing the following urban flash flood messaging for this event:
Street Flooding (Moderate Rainfall Rates; 1-2″/hour)
– Drive with caution. Car may flood in low-lying areas. Ponding on roadways may increase the risk of hydroplaning.
– Pay attention to the weather. Monitor the NWS, your local media, HCFCD, and other official weather information sources.