- The National Hurricane Center continues to monitor a disturbance in the Western Gulf of Mexico, which still has a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression or storm in the next 5 days.
- As the system moves towards the Middle Texas coast and pushes onshore in the coming days, it will bring widespread showers and storms to SE TX with locally heavy rain possible at times.
We, along with the National Hurricane Center, continue to closely watch the development of a disturbance in the Western Gulf of Mexico. While the system remains disorganized this morning, NHC forecasters continue to indicate that it has a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression or tropical storm within the next 5 days. Over the next 48 hours, the disturbance will become more organized and approach the Middle Texas coast, likely moving onshore on Friday. As this occurs, widespread showers and storms are expected with some locally heavy rain possible beginning today, especially near the coast. Please note that the system’s classification as a depression or a tropical storm (or lack thereof) will have little impact on the anticipated rainfall amounts. We continue to expect the highest rainfall totals over the next 3 days to occur to the south of the I-10 corridor based on the current expected development of the system, particularly around Galveston and Matagorda Bays. That being said, there is still some uncertainty regarding its eventual track and as a result, our rainfall forecast may shift as the system develops further. Additionally, there will be an increased risk of rip currents along Gulf-facing beaches beginning tomorrow as the system moves closer to the coast.