A broad area of surface low pressure is expected to develop over the northwest Caribbean and Yucatan Peninsula this weekend. This area of low pressure has a chance to gradually develop into a tropical cyclone beginning Sunday and continuing into early next week (NHC has the chance of tropical cyclone development at 50%). It is too early, due to much uncertainty, to speculate on a potential track.
We will need to continue to monitor this disturbance in the Tropical Weather Outlook through early next week.
Please see the potential formation area (orange area) in the attached 5 day Tropical Weather Outlook.
You can access the NHC’s latest Tropical Weather Outlook here: