Strong to severe thunderstorms still appear possible for portions of the region Friday afternoon through Saturday morning. Dry and cooler weather is expected Saturday afternoon through the end of the weekend.
Rain chances will increase on Friday as a strong upper level system reaches the Southern Plains. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible Friday morning with thunderstorm chances increasing north of a Brenham to Cleveland line during the afternoon and evening hours. As was noted in yesterday morning’s briefing, this development will be highly dependent on how warm the air several thousand feet above the ground is Friday afternoon. If it it too warm, thunderstorms may develop farther north and northeast of the region than currently forecast. Thunderstorms may become strong to severe and capable of damaging wind, large hail, and possibly a tornado. This activity is expected to shift east of the region Friday evening with another round of thunderstorms possible Friday night as a cold front moves into the region.
Thunderstorms along the cold front are expected to move across the region northwest to southeast with the cold front, clearing the upper Texas coast by sunrise Saturday. Thunderstorm development along the cold front appears slightly more uncertain with the latest model guidance and appears to be affected by what happens earlier in the day. Should thunderstorms develop, however, the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms will still exist along the cold front across most of the region before it moves into the Gulf. Light showers may linger along the coast behind the front but drier and cooler conditions are expected to move into the entire region by Saturday afternoon.