Slight risk of severe thunderstorms across extreme W/NW areas this evening. Slight/Enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms and locally heavy rainfall expected Thursday afternoon and evening across all of southeast Texas.

We are expecting scattered strong to severe thunderstorms to develop across central Texas this afternoon. These storms will likely move east into the west or northwest portions of southeast Texas between 5 and 7 PM. They are likely to weaken around 9 or 10 PM. The main threats from these storms are large hail and strong wind gusts.

On Thursday afternoon, numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop in the vicinity of a slow-moving cold front. Some of the thunderstorms could become severe, especially across the enhanced risk area, generally along and west/southwest of a Matagorday bay to Houston to Brenham line. The main threats are large hail and damaging wind gusts from mid-afternoon through the evening hours. Locally heavy rainfall is expected with isolated areas possibly receiving 2 to 3 inches.

See the attached Severe Weather Outlook graphic for more info.

Urban Flash Flood Messaging (For Thursday afternoon/evening)
Heavy rainfall is forecast for portions of Southeast Texas, including highly urbanized areas like the Houston metropolitan area. Based on forecast conditions, NWS Houston will be utilizing the following urban flash flood messaging for this event:

Street Flooding (Select if Anticipating Moderate Rainfall Rates; 1-2″/hour)
– Drive with caution. Car may flood in low-lying areas. Ponding on roadways may increase the risk of hydroplaning.
– Pay attention to the weather. Monitor the NWS, your local media, HCFCD and other official weather information sources.
– Rain may move repeatedly across the same area, causing a rapid rise on creeks and bayous. However, creeks and bayous are not likely to exceed their banks.

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