Discussion and 48-hour outlook
at 1000 am CDT...1500 UTC...the center of Tropical Storm Hermine was
located near latitude 23.4 north...longitude 95.8 west. Hermine is
moving toward the north-northwest near 13 mph...20 km/hr...and this
general motion is expected to continue for the next day or two.  On
the forecast track...the center of Hermine is expected to approach
the coast of northeastern Mexico or extreme southern Texas in the
warning area tonight.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph...85
km/hr...with higher gusts.  Additional strengthening is forecast
and Hermine could approach hurricane strength prior to landfall.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105 miles...165 km
from the center.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb...29.47 inches.
Hazards affecting land
wind...tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the warning
area later today.
Storm surge...storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 2 to
4 feet above ground level along the immediate coast near and to the
north of where the center makes landfall.
Rainfall...Hermine is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of
4 to 8 inches over northeastern Mexico and south Texas with isolated
maximum amounts of 12 inches possible.  These rains could cause
life-threatening flash flood and mudslides.
a Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Rio San Fernando Mexico northward to Baffin Bay Texas
a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* La Cruz Mexico northward to Port Oconnor Texas
a Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch this case within about 24 hours.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning this case within
about 24 hours.

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