June 29, 2022 1:37 pm

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Tropical Update: Low chance for tropical development in the Gulf

Monitoring a low probability of development of a tropical system in the Bay of Campeche mid-week… if it survives a trek from the Pacific across Mexico and into the Gulf. Eventually, an increase in moisture spreading across the Gulf may lead to greater rain chances in portions of the northern Gulf late next week.

Currently, in the PACIFIC – Tropical Storm Agatha is expected to strengthen and move north and northeastward into Mexico. Model guidance is showing a mix of solutions with a few reaching the Bay of Campeche and potentially developing. The movement through Mexico can often disrupt the circulations to the point they don’t survive or take much longer to organize. If anything were to develop in the Gulf (20%) it would likely be on Wednesday or later of next week.
This will be the only update on this system at this time unless signs of development or potential impacts change.