Scattered showers and thunderstorms are filling in along the Gulf coast this morning and are expected to move inland by mid to late morning. Periods of locally heavy rain will be possible today through Thursday as a tropical disturbance approaches the middle/lower Texas coast.


A tropical disturbance in the west-central Gulf of Mexico will continue to bring rounds of showers and thunderstorms this evening through Thursday. Forecast widespread rainfall totals through Thursday are expected to range from 4-6 inches over the Piney Woods to 10-12 inches near Matagorda Bay. (Please note: this is a larger time window than has been used in previous briefings to capture rain chances persisting into Thursday.) The tropical disturbance has a low chance (10%) of tropical cyclone development in the next 48 hours, but further development of this system is not anticipated.

Significant flooding is not expected with this system today given the abnormally dry to moderate drought conditions across the region, but high rain rates may contribute to isolated flooding issues. While locally heavy rain will be possible anytime through Thursday, the best window now appears to be on Tuesday and Wednesday due to the slow movement of the storm system associated with the rain. Any rain that falls today may make the region more susceptible to flooding issues from rain that falls on Tuesday and Wednesday and a Flash Flood Watch may be needed during that time.



Coastal and Marine

Long-period swell will result in waves building into the 5-7 feet range nearshore and 8-11 feet range offshore. It will also produce a high rip current risk along Gulf-facing beaches and produce tide levels peaking around 3.0 feet above MLLW at times of high tide. This may result in localized wave run-up or minor tidal overwash on Bolivar Peninsula.



Urban Flash Flood Messaging

Heavy rainfall is forecast for portions of Southeast Texas, including highly urbanized areas like the Houston metropolitan area. Based on forecast conditions, NWS Houston will be utilizing the following urban flash flood messaging for this event:

– Drive with caution. Car may flood in low-lying areas. Ponding on roadways may increase risk of hydroplaning.

– Pay attention to the weather. Monitor HCFCD, TranStar, and NWS for current conditions.

– Rain may move repeatedly across the same area, causing a rapid rise on creeks and bayous. However, creeks and bayous are not likely to exceed their banks.

**This messaging may be adjusted in future email briefings or via NWSChat should current or anticipated flooding conditions change.**

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