A strong storm system and jet stream are expected to move across Texas Wednesday into Thursday. Conditions are favorable for severe weather and SPC has a slight risk for southeast Texas. The main threats will be damaging winds and tornadoes. Severe weather risk depends upon the timing of the storm system and available energy for storm strength. This could be an overnight severe weather event along with a threat for heavy rainfall. There is also a marginal threat for excessive rainfall. Right now rainfall amounts of 1-3″ look reasonable but isolated higher amounts could cause a flooding problem. The main locations for these threats looks to be from the Gulf coast northward across the area. Storms could form in the afternoon but the main threat will be overnight Wednesday. Please see the attached graphics for more details.
Urban Flash Flood Messaging
Heavy rainfall is forecast for portions of Southeast Texas, including highly urbanized areas like the Houston metropolitan area. Based on forecast conditions, NWS Houston will be utilizing the following urban flash flood messaging for this event:
– Drive with caution. Car may flood in low-lying areas. Ponding on roadways may increase risk of hydroplaning.
– Pay attention to the weather. Monitor the NWS, your local media, HCFCD and other official weather information sources.
– Rain may move repeatedly across the same area, causing a rapid rise on creeks and bayous. However, creeks and bayous are not likely to exceed their banks.