Dr. Phil Klotzbach and Colorado State University released their 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast on Thursday.
Once again, you can expect a busier than average hurricane season for named storms in the Atlantic and landfalling storms in the United States.
Tropical storm and hurricane forecast
The forecast calls for 19 named storms compared to the 30-year average of 14.4.
Of those named storms 9 are expected to be hurricanes compared to the 30-year average of 7.2 hurricanes.
Of those hurricanes, 4 are forecast to be major compared with a typical year averaging 3.2.
Texas landfalling risk
The forecast also shows an increased likelihood of a hurricane getting to within 50 miles of the Texas coast. Colorado State University gives Texas a 54% chance of a hurricane coming very close to or making landfall this year. That compares to a 36% chance based on historical probability.
More concerning is our chances for a major hurricane to get dangerously close or to make landfall in Texas. Those chances are 25% this year versus the typical probability being closer to 16% based on historical occurrence.
We anticipate that the 2022 Atlantic basin hurricane season will have above-normal activity.
Current weak La Niña conditions look fairly likely to transition to neutral ENSO by this summer/fall, but the odds of a significant El Niño seem unlikely. Sea surface temperatures averaged across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic are currently near average, while the Caribbean and subtropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures are warmer than normal. We anticipate an above-average probability of major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean. As is the case with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them. They should prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted.
|Forecast Parameters||CSU Forecast for 2022||Average for 1991-2020|
|Named Storm Days||90||69.4|
|Major Hurricane Days||9||7.4|
|Accumulated Cyclone Energy+||160||123|
|+A measure of a named storm’s potential for wind and storm surge destruction defined as the sum of the square of a named storm’s maximum wind speed (in 104 knots2) for each 6-hour period of its existence.|