Flash flooding, and severe storms are possible on Thanksgiving and Friday
The ABC13 Weather Team has declared Thanksgiving and Friday as Weather Alert Days, and we strongly encourage you to have a way to receive weather alerts as you go about celebrating the holiday with family and friends.
On Thanksgiving Day, a powerful weather system will drop down just west of Texas, bringing widespread showers and thunderstorms to the eastern half of Texas.
When can we expect rain on Thanksgiving Day?
Scattered showers will develop Thanksgiving morning and then rain chance will quickly build as we head toward noon. Widespread showers and thunderstorms are possible all afternoon and continuing into the evening.
How bad will the weather be for Thanksgiving?
When the thunderstorms first develop, there’s a small (5%) chance a severe storm could come along with it. Gusty winds would be the primary concern, but a brief tornado cannot be ruled out. The bigger concern will be heavy rain leading to street flooding. A quick 1-3″ will fall in the heavier storms with isolated totals exceeding 4″ in some neighborhoods.
What can we expect Friday?
Our expectations here have shifted to a mostly dry morning, but then heavy rain will return during the afternoon and especially the evening. The upper level low is coming in stronger and slower, which means we will not get into the cold air on Friday. While it will be cooler than Thanksgiving Day, plentiful moisture will linger as low pressure spins up along the front just offshore. This will lead to widespread heavy rain as we go from Friday afternoon all the way into Saturday morning.
How much rain are expecting in total?
We believe between now and Saturday the rainfall totals will generally average between 2-5″, but there will be some isolated pockets that easily exceed 6″ of rain. Where this happens, bayou and creek flooding will be possible. Otherwise, street flooding will be the primary concern both Thanksgiving day and Friday. We expect the highest totals to fall in two bursts, one on Thursday afternoon, the second on Friday night.
When will we dry up over the weekend?
Plan for rain to continue into Saturday morning, and as long as the weather system doesn’t slow down anymore, we should dry out Saturday afternoon. We’ll even get some sunshine to end the day. Temperatures could briefly dip into the 50s during the middle of the day as the cooler, drier air blows in, then warm back up into the 60s once the sun comes out. Sunday still looks completely sunny with a cold morning in the upper 40s and a pleasant afternoon in the low 70s.