There is a Marginal risk of strong to severe thunderstorms on Friday across Southeast Texas with hail and strong wind gusts the primary threats. Heavy rainfall is expected as well, beginning on Friday and continuing through Saturday night. There is a Marginal risk of excessive rainfall across Southeast Texas from Friday afternoon through early Saturday morning.
A complex weather pattern is setting up for the end of the week and this system will produce locally heavy rain over much of Southeast Texas on Friday and Saturday. Periods of light rain should begin to develop early Friday morning. Favorable upper-level winds and a nearly stationary boundary will be the focus for heavy rain on Friday afternoon and continuing through Friday night. An area of low pressure will develop over South Texas on Saturday and move up the coast. This feature will bring additional periods of showers and thunderstorms to the region. The low will drag a cold front across the region Saturday night which will trigger additional showers and storms. Rainfall totals Friday through Saturday night are expected to average 2 to 5 inches across the area with isolated totals around 6 inches possible.
Urban Flash Flood Messaging
Heavy rainfall is forecast for portions of Southeast Texas, including highly urbanized areas like the Houston metropolitan area. Based on forecast conditions, NWS Houston will be utilizing the following urban flash flood messaging for this event:
Street Flooding (Moderate Rainfall Rates; 1-2″/hour)
– Drive with caution. Cars may flood in low-lying areas. Ponding on roadways may increase the risk of hydroplaning.
– Pay attention to the weather. Monitor the NWS, your local media, HCFCD, and other official weather information sources.
– Rain may move repeatedly across the same area, causing a rapid rise in creeks and bayous. However, creeks and bayous are not likely to exceed their banks.