Showers and thunderstorms are expected Thursday ahead of and along a passing cold front. There is a slight chance of excessive rain in isolated locations if heavier rain manages to train over the same place. Additionally, there is a marginal chance that the strongest storms of the day may become severe, which would be capable of producing damaging wind gusts or even a brief tornado or two.
A cold front will cross Southeast Texas on Thursday (Thanksgiving), moving through the area Thursday afternoon through late Thursday evening. Showers and thunderstorms will accompany the front itself, and there will be isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms developing ahead of the front starting in the early morning hours along with the potential for lingering showers and storms into Friday. The Storm Prediction Center has given most of the area a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms. Strong wind gusts are the main hazard, but an isolated tornado or two can’t be ruled out.
The thunderstorms may also produce locally heavy rainfall leading to minor flooding or ponding in low-lying areas and in areas of poor drainage. The threat for this is highest if and where multiple heavier showers and thunderstorms train over the same location. The most likely expectation for rainfall ranges from three-quarters to two inches of rainfall in the area. However, an isolated location could see as much as 5-7 inches of rain if it sees multiple strong storms over the day. Recent rainfall accumulations and cooler November temperatures will also prime the ground for enhanced runoff, and WPC has given our area a marginal to a slight risk of excessive rainfall.