Expect numerous showers and thunderstorms, primarily Thursday night into Friday, in association with a cold front passing through the area. Though generally manageable and welcome given recent dry conditions, high rain rates in the strongest storms may be capable of producing localized flooding concerns.
Our next cold front will approach and move through the area late this week. The first rain chances, particularly in the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods, will begin to emerge as early as Wednesday afternoon. But we’re really focusing on the Thursday night to Friday morning window ahead of and along the front for the most significant rain and thunderstorms.
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Given emerging drought conditions, rain will be a welcome sight for most. But, moisture levels ahead of this front will be very high for mid to late November, and will be able to support rain rates in the strongest storms capable of overwhelming the ground’s ability to absorb what rain falls. If the wrong storm drops heavy rain over the wrong place, we could see localized flooding concerns emerge.
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Because of this, there is a marginal risk of excessive rainfall (threat level 1 of 4) for much of the northwestern half of our area Thursday night, as well as a small sliver near the coast Friday morning. For a portion of the Brazos Valley, mostly in Burleson County, that risk level is slightly higher, in the slight risk category (threat level 2 of 4).
Severe thunderstorms are generally not anticipated in this event, but we could still manage some gusty winds in the strongest storms, and while quite unlikely, this is an environment where a very brief tornado or two could occur if all the ingredients line up.
