Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected this Saturday from a slow-moving/stalled cold front, which could bring locally heavy rainfall to portions of SE Texas.
An upper-level disturbance is expected to push through Texas over the weekend, bringing numerous showers/thunderstorms across the region. On Saturday, a cold front associated with this disturbance should slow/stall north of the I-10 corridor between the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods area. This slowed/stalled boundary should amplify rainfall rates across this area, potentially bringing localized heavy rain. WPC currently has portions of the Piney Woods area near Huntsville/Lake Livingston under a Slight (level 2/4) risk of excessive rainfall on Saturday, with the rest of SE Texas under a Marginal (level 1/4) risk. Rainfall totals of 1 – 3 inches are expected with isolated higher amounts possible. Soil conditions should still be saturated from last weekend’s storms, leaving most of SE Texas at a greater risk of seeing runoff and localized street flooding
It is important to note that the potential for localized heavy rainfall will largely depend on the cold front’s location. Therefore, any deviations in its expected position/movement could affect where the heaviest rain falls.
The risk of excessive rainfall decreases Saturday evening, with rainfall ending entirely Sunday evening as the cold front pushes offshore.
Urban Flash Flood Messaging
Heavy rainfall is forecast for portions of Southeast Texas, including highly urbanized areas like the Houston metropolitan area. Based on forecast conditions, NWS Houston will be utilizing the following urban flash flood messaging for this event:
– Drive with caution. Cars may flood in low-lying areas. Ponding on roadways may increase risk of hydroplaning.
– Pay attention to the weather. Monitor the NWS, your local media, HCFCD and other official weather information sources.
– Rain may move repeatedly across the same area, causing a rapid rise on creeks and bayous. However, creeks and bayous are not likely to exceed their banks.
Marine Hazards
Sea fog development remains possible across the bays and nearshore waters through the early weekend, especially during the overnight hours. The threat of sea fog should come to an end Sunday night as a cold front pushes offshore. Small Craft Advisories may be needed early Monday morning as moderate to strong offshore winds develop behind the front.
