Increasing rain chances starting mid week with possibility of heavy rain Friday and Saturday.
Tides already running a foot above normal. Water levels would increase further should a coastal low develop…with 1.5 to 2 foot departures possible. Minor coastal flooding possible by late in the week should that low develop…again depending on the strength and track of the low.
Still uncertainty in the strength and track of the low pressure system…with some solutions bringing well defined low up the Texas coast, others keeping a weaker low or trough of low pressure farther south. If the latter were to occur the heaviest rain would stay farther south as well and the impacts would be less.
National Hurricane Center now not expecting a “tropical cyclone” to develop (tropical depression, tropical storm) in next 5 days. They place the probabilities around zero percent. Can still have similar impacts (heavy rain, elevated tides) whether the low is “tropical” or not.
Attached latest rainfall forecast for the next 7 days from Weather Prediction Center.
