More widespread coverage from daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms can be expected into the weekend. For most, this will be welcome and beneficial rain, but the strongest storms could drop enough rain to produce localized flooding problems if they fall over vulnerable locations.
A break from this summer’s overarching pattern of hot and dry, we’re looking for several days of “a little less hot and rainier” to carry us through the rest of the work week and into the weekend. In general, the long-term drought conditions will mean that this period will bring a better chance of welcome amounts of rainfall. But, things can always escalate quickly in Southeast Texas – there is plenty of moisture available in the atmosphere, and the strongest storms will be capable of producing high rainfall rates for short bursts – usually while not very much rainfall is coming down just a little bit down the road. When falling over vulnerable spots (think low-lying roads, construction areas, poor drainage spots…anywhere that tends to flood first), even in a drought these rain rates could generate brief, localized issues with flooding.
The environment will be most capable of producing isolated heavy rain cells mainly east of I-45, or south of I-10 over the next several days. In this forecast rainfall map below, it’s important not to focus on specific amounts or precise locations, but see that embedded in a field of widespread light to moderate rainfall, there are smaller bullseyes of heavier rain. This is the type of rainfall pattern we can expect to see over the next several days. If you’ve got any spots that flood easily, having awareness of rainfall patterns at those spots this week will be helpful. Otherwise, enjoy a few days of increased rainfall coverage!
Urban Flash Flood Messaging
Heavy rainfall is forecast for portions of Southeast Texas, including highly urbanized areas like the Houston metropolitan area. Based on forecast conditions, NWS Houston will be utilizing the following urban flash flood messaging for this event:
Street Flooding (Select if Anticipating Moderate Rainfall Rates; 1-2″/hour)
– Drive with caution. Cars may flood in low-lying areas. Ponding on roadways may increase risk of hydroplaning.
– Pay attention to the weather. Monitor the NWS, your local media, HCFCD and other official weather information sources.
– Rain may move repeatedly across the same area, causing a rapid rise on creeks and bayous. However, creeks and bayous are not likely to exceed their banks.