Sunday, May 28, 2023
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severe thunderstorm watch

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
       western Louisiana
       southeast Texas
       coastal waters
Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 100 PM until 800
Hail to 2 inches in diameter… thunderstorm wind gusts to 70
mph… and dangerous lightning are possible in these areas.
The Severe Thunderstorm Watch area is approximately along and 65
statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles north
northwest of Beeville Texas to 40 miles east northeast of Fort
Polk Louisiana. For a complete depiction of the watch see the
associated watch outline update (wous64 kwns wou4).
Remember… a Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally
do produce tornadoes.
Discussion… strong cold front will sweep across these areas through
late this afternoon/early evening. While much of pre-frontal airmass
is currently capped to surface-based convection… latest objective
data suggests that this cap is weakening. Further weakening appears
likely as front surges into the region and aids in lifting a
warm/moist airmass where MLCAPE values range from about 500 j/kg in
the ern portions of the watch… to over 2000 j/kg across parts of
scntrl TX. Resulting tstm development should be increasingly
vigorous through the afternoon. Given steep lapse rates and
supportive large scale ascent… multicell storm coverage… becoming
marginally organized along or immediately behind the front should
contribute to an uptick in large hail and scattered damaging wind
Aviation… a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft
to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60
knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm
motion vector 29025.
… Carbin

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