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Tropical Disturbance Update

Not much has changed with the forecast overnight. Still some uncertainty, but impacts expected to be minimal for SE Texas.

The most likely scenario is for a tropical depression or tropical storm to develop over the next few days over the Gulf and track north into Louisiana. Most rain, wind and surge impacts will be near and east of the center, so relatively minor impacts for Southeast Texas and adjacent marine areas.

Some elevated tides, surf and rip current risk. Water levels generally below 3 feet above MLLW but any swell, surf could add some to that. Very little wind, rain from this system.

Confidence is still medium as far as the track is concerned. Will be higher once a more well-defined center forms. Changes in track and impact forecast may still occur.

Tropical Storm Warnings could be issued for this system this afternoon for portions of the northern Gulf coast but not likely to include Southeast Texas unless the track forecast changes significantly.