Tuesday, July 16, 2024


here has been very little change with the overall forecast for late this week and this weekend. Chances of tropical development have decreased to 10% but the real issue appears to be the threat of heavy rainfall and coastal flooding.

What We Know

– Tropical wave moving through the western Gulf could develop but may be hampered by dry air to the west of the system and initially wind shear.

– The potential development would most likely occur during the Saturday night through Sunday window in the Western Gulf.

Heavy rainfall is going to be likely this weekend. Intense rainfall rates of more than 2″ per hour with relatively slow moving showers and thunderstorms.

– Abnormally dry conditions to moderate drought exists along the Upper Texas Coast. The tropical wave in the Gulf looks to bring much needed rainfall to the region. Drought will help mitigate, but not eliminate, a flood risk. If too much of rain falls in too short of a period of time, isolated flooding issues may be a possibility.

– Rough marine conditions are expected with seas building to 7-10 ft well offshore and 5-7 ft nearshore.

– These marine conditions will likely lead to beach flooding on the Gulf facing shores with elevated tide levels across the Upper Texas Coast.

– Strong rip currents and high surf conditions are expected Saturday through Monday.

What We Don’t Know

– Whether or not tropical cyclone development will occur.

– Exact rainfall amounts or locations that will experience the highest rainfall totals. Confidence in amounts is expected to Friday and Saturday.

– Exact wave heights or tide levels along the coast.



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