A weak cold front will move into Southeast Texas and bring a good chance of showers and thunderstorms to the region late today and continuing intermittently through Thursday. Some of the storms late this afternoon and tonight could be strong to severe with gusty winds and locally heavy rain.

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop over North Texas later today. This area of precipitation will move toward Southeast Texas very late this afternoon and then move south toward the coast tonight. Southwest winds this morning should allow for strong heating today with high temperatures reaching the middle 90’s. This will provide plenty of fuel for late afternoon thunderstorms along the weak front. There are indications that the weak front will collide with the sea breeze near the I-10 corridor this evening and some of the storms could briefly become severe with strong gusty winds. In addition to the potential for damaging winds, some of the stronger storms could produce heavy rain. Most areas should receive between 0.50 and 1.00 inches of rain by Tuesday morning but some areas could receive in excess of 4.00 inches of rain in the stronger storms. Currently, Southeast Texas is not out looked for severe weather by the Storm Prediction Center. However, the Weather Prediction Center has outlooked parts of SE TX in a Marginal to Slight Risk for excessive rainfall today and in a Marginal Risk on Tuesday and Wednesday. These are the excessive rainfall outlooks from the Weather Prediction Center:


Alternate Possibilities
Some of the high-resolution convective models show the front and associated outflow boundary-pushing into the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday. If this occurs, the moisture transport necessary for heavy rain will be cut off and the rain on Tuesday will be confined to the coast or just offshore and rain chances across Southeast Texas will be considerably lower than currently forecast.
Urban Flash Flood Messaging
Heavy rainfall is forecast for portions of Southeast Texas, including highly urbanized areas like the Houston metropolitan area. Based on forecast conditions, NWS Houston will be utilizing the following urban flash flood messaging for this event:
Street Flooding (Select if Anticipating Moderate Rainfall Rates; 1-2″/hour)
– Drive with caution. Cars may flood in low-lying areas. Ponding on roadways may increase the risk of hydroplaning.
– Pay attention to the weather. Monitor the NWS, your local media, HCFCD and other official weather information sources.
– Rain may move repeatedly across the same area, causing a rapid rise on creeks and bayous. However, creeks and bayous are not likely to exceed their banks.